Well after a week off, it's time to get back to work and dive in on another terrific slate for us PLL bettors. In week two, we ended up with a perfect 2-0 in our Weekend Wager plays bringing us to 4-1 year to date (YTD). For the Bet On Lacrosse show, Doug Greenberg and I make picks on every game against the spread, and while I wouldn't recommend betting every game, I am heading into week three with an 8-2 against the spread (ATS) record.
While I hope to keep the hot streak going, it's a good teaching moment that when sports betting long term, there will be peaks and valleys. Whether you are running red hot or ice cold, having discipline in the amount and frequency that you're betting is a major key to long term profit. So enough with the Sports Betting 101, let's dive into week three of the PLL!
PLL Goal Totals
After writing & talking about my frustration regarding how totals were being scored in my week two article, I am ecstatic to see that the verbiage on how DraftKings will grade PLL totals moving forward has been corrected. DraftKings has now specified that "Total Goals refers to the SUM OF THE FINAL SCORE" meaning you can put away your abacus when trying to find out if your bet hit and just look at the box score.
Now that it's a bit clearer when betting totals and we're starting to learn more about the teams in the 2021 PLL season, I feel more comfortable analyzing the totals. One total that stood out to me and was actually my Best Bet for Bet On Lacrosse is the 20.5 total in Sunday's Atlas v. Cannons game.
Cannons LC leads the PLL in scores with a total of 38 and they have not failed to reach double digits in any of their three games scoring 11, 13 and 14 most recently in an overtime loss to the Whips. On the other sideline, I think Atlas is still being unfairly viewed by the market due to their week one 18-6 drubbing at the hands of the Archers. Coach Rubeor's squad bounced back from that embarrassment by doubling up their week one score total with a 12-9 win over a strong defensive team in the Redwoods. This leads me to believe their bottom of the league offensive efficiency is a bit of a mirage. Give me the OVER 20.5 on Sunday.
Week 3 Play: Over 20.5 total goals in Cannons vs Atlas
PLL Game Spreads / Money Lines
While I don't have an official play in the game, it is worth noting that after going 3-0 ATS as +1.5 underdogs, we see the Cannons as a -1.5 favorite over Atlas. I'll be looking to see how the Cannons do against the spread now that they are laying points as opposed to getting them as they had in their first 3 outings. In this game, I LEAN with the Cannons on the money line, but I want to see if Atlas' identity looks more like what we saw in week one or week two.
Another play I'm LEANING towards is Redwoods -2.5 over Chaos. Before the lines come out weekly, I make my own spreads to see how the way I view teams and the market views teams either line up or differ. I was hoping the Woods' week two hiccup would have us seeing them as only a -1.5 favorite, in which case they would have been one of my favorite plays. However, as stated on last weeks Bet On Lacrosse show, I don't have enough confidence yet in a 1-2 ATS Redwoods team to lay 2.5, even against a struggling Chaos team.
My final LEAN comes in Saturday's primetime tilt between the Archers and Waterdogs. Like my hesitation in the Woods game, this is another game that I hoped we would see a slightly different line. Archers LC looks unbeatable, boasting a +16 scoring differential. However, one could argue that the 'Dogs are every bit as hot coming off a 2-0 week two and looking like they are finding their own stride. However, the short -1.5 line already reflects that the market agrees with me that this is a good spot for Waterdogs. If we saw that +2.5, I'd be pulling off the rubber band but at +1.5, all I can do is LEAN with the 'Dogs.
Sorry to be a bit boring with no official ATS/ML plays for our week three Weekend Wager, but as stated above - discipline is HUGE in being profitable long term in sports betting. Since I only LIKE these plays and don't quite LOVE them, I'll be passing putting anything outside of some pizza money down.
For more in-depth analysis from myself and Doug Greenberg, check out the Bet On Lacrosse Show wherever you get your podcasts and as always, good luck with your bets!
