Editor’s Note: Guest post by Hayden King
Week 12 Recap
Last week was my best week of picks for the 2023 season, going 16-2. Heading into the Conference Tourneys, I’ve picked 224 games on the season and have been correct for 159 of those picks, good for about a 71% rate.
Both losses of the week were upsets as Army lost to Boston, and Delaware somehow dropped one to Towson. Delaware and Towson will be playing again this week, and I’ve picked Delaware to win this second matchup.
It was a testament win and one Towson deserved credit for. They needed to win to earn a spot in their Conference tournament, and the win on Saturday got them in for a chance at the NCAA Tournament.
As for Army, I thought they were the best team in the Patriot League and would be an easy pick to beat Boston. However, Boston is a DAMN good team this year and were able to pull out the upset win. I like Boston as a dark horse to win the Patriot League this year.
Wins for the week: Colgate, UMass, DU, Georgetown, Lehigh, Navy, Yale, Jacksonville, St. Joseph’s, Brown, Duke, Air Force, Cornell, Michigan, Maryland, and Rutgers.
Week 12 Games of the Week Recap
Last week I decided to go with games I thought presented the best odds for a decent pay day. I ended up taking the parlay and all three picks separately. Although the parlay lost, still won 2 of the 3 picks and had a nice little steak dinner to celebrate on Saturday.
Loyola dropped the game to Lehigh Saturday, which is something I expected could happen. I picked Lehigh in this matchup for my weekly picks, but thought Loyola COULD pull out a win and the odds were very attractive.
With that, Lehigh is a team you should be watching out for if you haven’t already. They won’t win the NCAA Tournament, but they’ve been on a steady rise over the last 5 years. I love what’s coming out of Bethlehem, Pennsylvania.
I took Virginia +1.5 spread vs. Notre Dame as well, and that’s a pick I’m damn happy about. I think Virginia is putting things together at the right time, and although I didn’t expect Virginia to flat out win, it provided some great value.
Notre Dame is in trouble when the NCAA Tournament comes… They’ve beaten Duke, but Virginia has their number. If Duke can knock off Virginia early, they might have a chance. But if they have to face Lars, count the Irish out of contention.
Finally, I took Harvard vs. Yale at under 29.5 goals. Yale was the easy pick to win the game, but the odds were terrible so I figured taking a spread of Over/Under would be ideal. Seeing this line at 29.5 blew my mind because Harvard doesn’t score (or let up) a lot of goals.
Yale ended up winning 14-11, which got me the win on the under. I said it earlier in the season, but betting Harvard under’s is usually a safe bet with Gerry Byrne at the Crimson helm.
Week 13 Games of the Week
Looking at the last regular season picks, I think we can get some great value out of the final Games of the Week for 2023. As with previous weeks, I'm going to put three picks that I think provide great value! Let's ride!
First up, I love Pennsylvania ML over Princeton at +100. I think Penn is a better team, and Penn has already beat Princeton in March. Princeton has put pieces together since then, but they’re still sitting at .500 with a 6-6 record.
This is Handley’s last run at Penn, and I think they’ll do everything in their power to win this Ivy League tournament. Do I think they will beat Cornell if they advance past Princeton? No. However, I do think they’re the second best team in the Ivy’s, and getting an underdog value for this pick is too attractive to ignore.
Next, I like Notre Dame vs. North Carolina’s spread of +5 at -115 odds. UNC has dropped both of their matchups to Notre Dame by 5+ over the last two years, and smoked them by 7 this season.
Notre Dame has a fire torch offense, and UNC is in a rebuild year. Notre Dame still has a lot to prove after missing the Tournament last year, and I think they’re going to come into the ACC Tournament with something to prove.
Finally, I like Maryland vs. Michigan at Under 26.5 goals for -125 odds. This one’s very simple, Maryland hasn’t had a +25 point game since March when they played Virginia. They’re defense is a joy to watch and they’ll hold Michigan’s offense in check.
Michigan has been scoring a lot more goals in the back half of the season, and when these two teams matched up previously, they did pass that 26 goal mark. Maryland can beat you offensively or defensively, but their last few games they’ve been a defensive juggernaut.
Odds for the whole parlay are set at +573. Good luck to all that participate!
Week 13 Picks
- Utah vs. Bellarmine (Friday)--Utah
- Air Force vs. Robert Morris (Friday)--Air Force
- Boston vs. Loyola (Friday)--Boston
- Cornell vs. Yale (Friday)--Cornell
- Army vs. Lehigh (Friday)--Army
- Penn vs. Princeton (Friday)--Penn
- North Carolina vs. Notre Dame (Saturday)--ND
- Richmond vs. High Point (Saturday)--Richmond
- Delaware vs. Stony Brook (Saturday)--Delaware
- Georgetown vs. Denver (Saturday–GTown
- Maryland vs. Michigan (Saturday)--Maryland
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