Editor’s Note: This recurring series is written by Billy Costigan.
Welcome back lacrosse fans and sports bettors! Only three weekends left of the Premier Lacrosse League regular season and this week takes us to the University of Denver.
Which teams can start to pull away as we enter the home stretch of the season and which teams might fall apart?
Soon it will be win or go home time and anybody who is left on the bracket’s game.
Week 8 Report
Last week in Texas, close games continued to be par for the course in the PLL. There were two one-point games, a two-point game, and a five-point game that may have been closer than the final score sounds.
Archers were battling closely before Atlas pulled away in the 4th quarter to cost us a moneyline bet. Turns out the underdog plus the points was the play again here.
Baptisite dominated, which as I noted could make Atlas against the spread the play. Unfortunately at the time of writing last week Baptiste was looking more doubtful.
Atlas had save and faceoff percentages in the 60’s, while Archers’ were in the 30’s. Archers will need to turn those numbers around to have a better shot at winning, or at least convert more than 9 of their 34 shots.
Cannons also kept it closer than expected with big games from Thompson, Marrocco, and Kelly. I still expect big things from Waterdogs going forward though.
Chrome got an underdog cover for us. Whipsnakes again won outright, yet failed to cover as favorites.
Chaos also cashed for us as underdogs against the spread or you could have even taken them on the moneyline, as they beat Redwoods outright. It’s hard to say with a ton of confidence if either of these two teams will make a run, but I’d lean Chaos.
This is how the bets fell for week 8:
Underdogs against the spread (ATS), really made a move to solidify their dominance going 4-0 in Week 8 moving to 19-9 (67.86%) this season.
Totals split 2-2 to remain even, now sitting at fourteen overs and fourteen unders.
Moneyline favorites and underdogs also split 2-2, bringing them to eighteen favorite (64.29%) and ten underdog (35.71%) wins on the moneyline this year.
Also, I’ve been compiling how each team is trending for each type of bet this season:
Chrome continue to cover spreads better than anyone (5-2 ATS). Their cover against Whipsnakes last week leaves Whipsnakes (2-5 ATS) at the bottom of the against the spread standings.
Chaos and Cannons continue to be the hottest teams to the over, each going over 5 of 7 games. While Chrome and Whipsnakes continue to go under the most, both staying under 5 of 7 games this season
Whipsnakes (6-1) and Atlas (5-2) are gaining some room at the top of the moneyline / outright standings.
Archers, Chrome, and Waterdogs all seem determined to make some noise as well, though at 4-3 each. Which is where score differential could very well come into play later on.
Also since this is the PLL, you can’t really count out Redwoods and Chaos (or even Cannons I guess) yet either.
Now let’s see what this next week of PLL action from Colorado has in store.
Week 9 Report
Friday 9PM
Cannons +1.5 (-125) / ML +120
Redwoods -1.5 (-105) / ML -150
Over 24.5 (-115) / Under 24.5 (-115)
Starting off the weekend is 2-5 (2nd to last place) Redwoods, taking on 1-6 (last place) Cannons. Redwoods hope to keep Cannons as the team out of the playoffs and Cannons look to keep their season alive.
Between the pipes Redwoods have (45%) Jack Kelly. Helping Kelly out are veteran poles Glazner and Epple. Redwoods also sport Hartzell and Sexton at long stick midfield as well as Davis-Allen and Haberson at short stick defensive midfield.
Marrocco (50%) who’s 2nd in the league in number of saves (99) only behind Riorden, will get the start for Cannons. His play helped keep it close against Waterdogs last week.
Cannons’ defense as a whole does rank last in the league though, in both scores against (103) and scores against average (14.7).They’d hope to get defensive quarterback Merrill back but that’s not definite. Last week’s new addition at pole, Newbold did get 1 goal.
Another solid addition to Cannons’ defense this week should be their pickup of defensive midfielder Pat Aslanian. Hopefully he can help Cannons, who allow opponents to shoot (a league high) 27.2% off dodges. Fairman and Goodrich are solid options at this position as well.
At the faceoff X Cannons will most likely go with (51%) Stephen Kelly. He’s been looking solid this year and also played a big part in Cannons’ efforts to stay in it last weekend.
While Redwoods go with accomplished face off specialist, Ierlan (52%). Just neutralizing a player who can be as dominant as Ierlan, and not letting him completely dominate, is sometimes the best a team can hope for.
Kelly has held his own so far this season against some solid competition though he has struggled against Ierlan in the past.
On offense Cannons will again turn to the likes of Thompson (30 points) with help from Nolting (15 points), Drenner (17 points), and Donville (4 points).
More recent additions of veteran Cockerton (3G) and Chris Aslanian (2G, 2A) look to provide needed sparks for Cannons, and they both did so in their debuts last weekend.
Cannons will need to get more going through the midfield to take pressure off of / compliment their talent at attack. These new additions could provide that extra midfield presence.
Redwoods got big games last weekend from Garnsey with 5 points, Pannell with 3 points, and Texas native Montgomery with 2 points against Chaos. Jones had 4 points and has been looking better since switching midfield lines. Perkovic, Bertrand, and Kavanagh each chipped in with a point as well.
Looking to continue to develop depth, Redwoods will try to keep their already hot stars going. They’ll need more contributions from others on the roster as well.
Nat St. Laurent’s adjustments appear to be helping. Redwoods will want to be putting up even more offense though, to climb out of a league worst 73 scores for this season.
It does feel like Redwoods should be doing better overall this season than they are. However we’ve got to look at reality and what I have seen doesn’t give me confidence in them to win by 2.
Look for Cannons recent additions to help build on their core talent and take the points.
Pick: Cannons +1.5 (-125)
Saturday 11:30AM
Chaos +1.5 (-125) / ML +120
Chrome -1.5 (-105) / ML -150
Over 23.5 (+100) / Under 23.5 (-130)
Turning our attention to Saturday, we have a triple header. Beginning with 2-5 (fighting to survive) Chaos vs 4-3 (trying to prove they belong) Chrome.
Coming in with the 2nd ranked defense, Chrome start Sconone (52%) in net who’s a big man that can move. In front of him he’s got formidable poles Manley and Giles-Harris who’ve both been playing like all stars this season.
Looking to start their run at another title, Chaos will no doubt be dependent on their defense playing stellar from here on out. They’ve got an all timer in the cage helping that cause with Riorden (54%), who’s 4th in save percentage and 1st in number of saves this season. He’ll be assisted by long sticks Neumann and Rowlett.
For faceoffs Chrome have a solid go-to in Farrell (57%) who’s 3rd in the league right now in face off percentage. Chaos will likely turn to Adler who was 50% in his season debut last week.
Many people noticed the officials seeming to let Adler have free reign last week, not really requiring him to get completely set before the draw. Both specialists are solid here but how tight they call the X could really influence this outcome, with a tighter called game more likely helping Chrome’s chances.
Chrome have multiple weapons on offense which have gotten them this far. Their attack of Nichtern (28 points), Wisnauskas (20 points), and Molloy (18 points) knows how to score.
Plus Chrome also receive production in the midfield from Anderson (14 points), MacIntosh (10 points), and Heacock (5 points). Yet we all know it’s not easy, even for the most potent offenses, to get the ball past Riorden.
Chaos may have taken even longer than expected to “click” on offense, but appear to be doing so more recently. Last weekend they found success attacking more vertically, rather than from the wings.
Dhane Smith (16 points) quarterbacked this look to the tune of 1 goal and 5 assists in Dallas. While Ryan Smith (13 points) also flourished with 5 goals.
The likes of Byrne (13 points), Fraser (8 points), O’Keefe (12 points), and Jackson (10 points) help round out this Chaos offensive unit.
If this box style offense really is going to peak at the right time we all know how dangerous that can be. However with not much time left in the season their room for error here is slim.
After a 4-0 start, Chrome enter this contest on a 3 game losing streak. They’ll no doubt be hungry to prove their start wasn’t a fluke.
Chaos are looking for a three game winning streak to start saving their season. You know the reigning champs are motivated to make some noise and show they still belong.
So in this one both teams have potential and motivation. They both badly need and want to win, however that can’t translate to a win for both teams.
I’m inclined in this high pressure situation to go with Chaos who’ve been here before. There’s just a lot of potential for the pressure / mental side of things to get to either of these squad’s soon.
Chrome may be the real deal but they aren’t used to being in that role and have yet to really prove it when all eyes are upon them. Chaos have dug themselves a deep hole, however they’ve climbed out of holes like this before to go on make deep runs.
Chrome do have a better record against the spread this season. Yet the larger sample size of all teams this season, and last, says underdogs (in this case Chaos) have the edge against the spread.
So I’m gonna hold my nose at least one more time and take the defending champs plus the points.
Pick: Chaos +1.5 (-125)
Saturday 2pm
Waterdogs +1.5 (-120) / ML +125
Atlas -1.5 (-110) / ML -155
Over 24.5 (-125) / Under 24.5 (-105)
The middle match of Saturday is 4-3 (looking to make a stir) Waterdogs vs 5-2 (high powered and hungry to dominate) Atlas.
Atlas have the 4th ranked defense (11.1 SAA, 78 SA) while Waterdogs come in at 6th (12.6 SAA, 88 SA). Both squads also sport excellent keepers.
Waterdogs’ Ward had a somewhat rough 39% save percentage outing last week, but still comes in at 52% this season. He’ll need to return to his All-World form though, to match the Atlas’ great goaltending this year.
For Atlas, Concannon is 2nd in the league at 57% only behind Whipsnakes’ Bernlohr. Concannon is also one of the best at stopping shots in close, stopping 60% of doorstep chances this season and 51.5% in his career. Stopping high quality chances like that can be very demoralizing for an opposing offense.
Faceoffs again stand to be a huge factor when a player like Atlas’ Baptiste is going 70% this season! That’s an insanely impressive percentage of faceoffs to win, which no doubt gives Atlas’ offensive weapons more possessions and thus more chances to score. He’s also accumulated 7 points and 58 ground balls this season.
Waterdogs will try to counter at the X with Tucci (46%) and Withers (43%). While they don’t have the highest percentages, there is hope for this duo. Both these players have high ceilings. While playing against an MVP frontrunner in Baptiste may not be their best game of the year, there’s potential they could at least limit him to give their team a chance.
Just like last week if Baptiste dominates the X so greatly again, that could really tip the scales the Atlas’ way. It’s hard to beat a team when both their faceoff and save percentages are up above 60%.
On offense Atlas seem to be a well oiled machine. Attackman Teat (28 points), Gray (24 points), and Law (22 points) don’t show any signs of slowing down.
Midfielders Bucaro (9 points) and Aitken (8 points) have turned it up a notch in recent contests. Plus Costabile (14 points) appears to be getting back in his groove of being an absolute weapon.
Waterdogs have become quite the formidable offense to deal with as well though despite often missing multiple pieces. Brown (11 points) remains doubtful and Schlosser (3 points) questionable on the report this week. However their team still put up 15 points last week without them.
Midfielders Kelly (17 points), Currier (13 points), Conrad (9 points) and Hannah (8 points) all find ways to contribute. Walker (10 points) finds get chances and McArdle (26 points) at attack is becoming a real problem for defenses.
Star offensive threat Sowers (22 points) has more than proven he has the ability to play at an elite super star level, it’s just a matter of him remaining healthy. Injury has plagued Sowers throughout his career. As a result Waterdogs are forced to run Sowers through midfield, when he can’t play the whole game at attack.
This position change hasn’t seemed to limit his efficiency, if you remember a lot of his collegiate production came from above the goal line as well. It is, though, somewhat a balance of less touches with more space from the midfield or more touches with less space at attack from behind the cage.
If Sowers can stay on the field for a high enough volume of possessions he should put up a high enough volume of results.
The better against the spread record belongs to Waterdogs at 4-3 vs Atlas’ 3-4 ATS record. Once again we could also consider underdogs success against the spread here as well.
So I’m inclined to take Waterdogs plus the points hoping they can overcome Baptiste’s dominance to keep it close or maybe even shock Atlas (both meetings last year were 1 point games).
Although if you believe Baptiste will be too much for Waterdogs, then I would look at Atlas moneyline. But in a league where dogs dominate the spread, give me the Waterdogs.
Pick: Waterdogs +1.5 (-120)
Saturday 4:30PM
Archers +1.5 (-150) / ML +100
Whipsnakes -1.5 (+120) / ML -130
Over 23.5 (-110) / Under 23.5 (-120)
Wrapping up Saturday's triple header and this weekend’s games, is a battle of heavyweights between 4-3 (looking to finally reach the crown) Archers vs 6-1 (lone 1st place) Whipsnakes.
Whipsnakes boast the number 1 ranked defense (10 SAA, 70 SA). They’ve got some solid long sticks in Dunn and Ehrhardt. Their goalie Bernlohr leads the league in save percentage at 58%.
On defense, Archers rank 3rd in the PLL (11 SAA, 77SA). Hossack and Ratliff lead the poles for Archers. Ghitelman has shown signs of greatness before, but is currently sitting at 49% save percentage. To help balance faceoff troubles, Archers need Ghitelman to play not just good but great.
Archers would do well to find some faceoff success at some point. Their primary option here should be Inacio who in his 5 games so far, is facing off at 46%. The backup option is Labetti, who when filling in twice this season, has gone 37% in a little less than half as many draws.
Nardella (67%) should be all the Whipsnakes need as usual. He currently ranks 2nd in the league in faceoff percentage, only behind Baptiste. Along the way he's snagged sixty-one ground balls and four points.
One reason Nardella excels is because of his ability to adapt and switch between stand up / knee down stances based on the opponent / situation.
Even going just 50% (or close to it) would be a big success for the Archers here. Although they have beaten Whipsnakes before while losing the battle at the X.
Whipsnakes are finding offensive contributions from everyone from Rambo (19 points), Williams (8 points), and Guterding (16 points) to Chanenchuck (13 points), Cole (12 points), and Kirst (8 points). They've also often had different leading scores in games.
While they may not be putting up a ton of scores per game, Whipsnakes offense is still
very capable. Although, odds are they may need to start getting higher into the double digit scores at some point to sustain success down the road.
The offensive end is an area Archers don't usually struggle to put up numbers in, even if they’ve yet to find playoff success. Eventually though they've got to start converting all this talent into big game wins.
Manny (29 points) leads Archers in points followed closely by Schreiber (24 points). Holman (21 points) is continuing to snipe with deadly accuracy, coming in at 3rd in points on the team.
Contributions from rookies Moore (17 points) and DeSimone (12 points) have helped make this unit even more threatening. Plus about a half dozen or more other Archers are finding points and ways to contribute to the offense.
Ament has been back for two games and registered 5 points (1G, 3A). Hopefully the longer he's back, the more he'll be able to find where he can contribute this year. It's not always so easy with so many other stars on the same team.
Even Archers’ loaded offense could still use someone like Ament getting into a groove where he raises up everyone else around him's level of play as well.
From a possession advantage out of the faceoff X, Whipsnakes may squeak out another one point win here, which would give Archers the cover against the spread.
Archers are very familiar with Whipsnakes defense as well as hungry to get a quality win, so they potentially have a shot at the outright win as well.
Their last two meetings were one score decisions either way.
Count on the experienced (and fire’d up) lacrosse minds of Archers to get it done this time and keep it within 1 or better.
Pick: Archers +1.5 (-150)
Conclusion
So there’s just about everything I can give you for now to help you cash some bets on this weekend’s games or even just enjoy watching them.
As you can see I am riding this week with the underdogs against the spread. I don’t want to react too much to last week’s 4-0 sweep by underdogs. However I did my research this week and this is what the info told me. Even a 3-1 out of these picks could still be profitable, especially with some decent prices.
Hopefully we will hear some dogs barking this weekend!
Don’t forget as well about the amazing opportunities live betting can present. A lot of these games tend to be very close and can be tough to call. So if you already have a pre-flop ticket on the dog and the favorite goes down a little earlier on, you may be able to set yourself up nicely. Keep your eyes open for any situations that may arise.
There’s also a whole ever growing and changing board of player props available as well. Some value may be found there too, especially the more bets that are offered.
Be sure to check out my Twitter for more updates and plays throughout the weekend and as always my DM’s are open with any questions you may have about lacrosse or sports betting @bCostigan84.
Best of luck and let’s cash some bets!