Editor’s Note: This recurring series is written by Billy Costigan.
This year’s NCAA season has been filled with parity. Believe it or not, we only have a few weeks left of the regular season then it’s playoff time.
Week 9 saw underdogs hold the advantage on the spread 9 to 5.
Favorites held the lead in outright wins on the moneyline 10 to 4.
Johns Hopkins managed to stay within 2 goals of Ohio State and cover the +2.5 goal spread despite Ohio State winning the moneyline outright 12-10. I don’t think Hopkins has a memorial day run in them, but they are decent enough to bet on when catching so many points.
Another great matchup that I was able to cash tickets on was Notre Dame +1.5 on the spread versus Duke and -115 on the moneyline. In this case possibly the wrong team was favored. Notre Dame won by one goal (16-15) but that’s more than enough to cash underdog tickets. I would have made Notre Dame the favorite here but we’ll take them as a dog anyday.
There’s still games to be played but for now I’m leaning into the general consensus that Notre Dame is underrated and Duke just may be overrated this year. I’m feeling decent about my ticket on Notre Dame to win the national championship at +1400 on Draftkings.
Virginia, Loyola, Cornell, and Maryland all handled their roles as favorites well, covering easily. Most of their moneyline prices were too high to make any winnings worth the bet, but on the spread prices, these teams were much more reasonable to bet on.
It was rather surprising that 3.5 goal underdog Brown beat Penn 12-10. Of course, this is the Ivy League so maybe I shouldn’t be surprised. Something I won’t be surprised by is if one or more Ivy teams make a deep run in the tournament. I have been looking for Yale, Cornell, or Princeton to pull away from the pack, but Penn and Brown don’t show any signs of stepping aside.
With such a solid conference you might not feel bad holding a futures ticket on any of these Ivy squads to take the national championship on Memorial Day. I myself have Yale +1000 to win it all but am wondering if I would be better off with Princeton +900 or Cornell +1600. Perhaps it may even be worth a shot on Brown +3000 if they could run the table come the tournament?
Here’s a recap chart of the games that were available to bet in Week 9.
Week 10 had a loaded card featuring 20 betable games (that I was able to track). Favorites dominated week 10 against the spread 12-8 & on the moneyline 13-7.
Cornell was able to win against Syracuse yet surprisingly couldn't cover the -1.5 goal spread only winning 16-15 in overtime. Brown made a statement with a 20-13 stomping of Yale, once again leaving the Ivy wide open.
Another interesting result was Virginia falling as -1.5 goal favorites to Duke 17-8. Losses to Maryland and Duke seem understandable, although the large margins of defeat leave cause for concern as does their loss to Richmond. However, UVA has handled UNC, Syracuse, Hopkins, and Notre Dame. If Lars Tiffany has the Cavaliers playing their best, they won't be an easy out come late May.
I do have a +425 national champion bet on Virginia from early March. They are now available at +900 which is a lot more value that I’d rather have. Instead, I hedged with other teams (Notre Dame, Yale, Maryland).
Maryland handled Ohio State without trouble 19-12, begging the question, is there any size spread Maryland can’t cover?
North Carolina got the job done against Syracuse, but only by a goal and couldn’t cover the -1.5 goal spread. This victory for UNC comes after just being crushed by Virgnia and Duke in their previous two games. Following the Syracuse victory, North Carolina was again blown out again by Notre Dame on Thursday night. If Syracuse, already eliminated from postseason contention, is the only ACC team that UNC can beat, then there is some real trouble in Chapel Hill.
Johns Hopkins seems to still be hanging around as well with a physical win in tough weather over Penn State. Although, a victory over the 3-9 Nittany Lions isn’t saying much these days. We’ll have to see how the Blue Jays fare in the Big Ten Tournament.
Here’s the Recap Chart for Week 10.
Week 11 is shaping up to be another good one! Hopefully some of you have capitalized on Georgetown’s 14-7 win over Loyola on Tuesday. If you were on Twitter you may have cashed in with me during Notre Dame’s 12-5 stomping of UNC on Thursday night. If so you would already be up 1-0 on the week with Notre Dame on the spread and a profit of 0.77 units or 0.95 units depending on whether you bet the Irish early or late.
Here are the betting odds/lines for this week including the two games that already happened.
Now, I would like to walk you through my bets for this week. We have one bet that already cashed, six pending bets, and four leans. Remember, bets are definite plays. Games to actually place money on.
Leans are like suggestions, a play you’re only considering placing money on. Here is my full card.
For each of my bets, I have included a preview graphic with relevant information. There are the betting odds from Draftkings, basic team statistics from the NCAA (ranking and team percentage/average per game), and more advanced team statistical rankings from Lacrosse Reference.
I’ve highlighted the team that leads in each category in yellow as well as my pick for the game in green at the top. My one bet on a total (Army / Navy) does not have a graphic but I will comment on it instead.
If you’re confused about the definition of any statistics, Lacrosse Reference has great explanations. Also, feel free to reach out on Twitter.
The win percentage probability is Lacrosse Reference’s rating on that team in that game. It could be a different number if generated from a different source and is not a guarantee.
Remember, no one statistic is the end all, be all when deciding to place a bet.
You always want to gather as much information and consider as many factors as possible!
There isn't a graphic for the third pending bet on my card, Army vs Navy. Army is a -4.5 goal favorite and -550 on the moneyline.
For this pick, though let’s look at the total which opened 24.5 Over -105 / Under -125 and moved to 23.5 Over -105/Under -125 which is where I got it. The total is still 23.5 but the price has moved again to over +110/Under -140. This movement in the direction of the under can signal the sportsbook is thinking under is the more likely outcome, and I would agree.
You may have heard of steady cashing bets year in and year out on Service Academy Unders, most commonly in the annual Army / Navy football game. That adage alone may not be enough to trigger a bet, but there may still be some truth behind it. All the players from service academies undergo similar intense physical training and practice similar methods.
This can lead to “simpler” more physical offenses slowly grinding it out. They tend to take their time on long possessions which can mean fewer total goals scored. Let’s take a look at some even more relevant and specific statistics that can help decide our bet in this lacrosse game.
The first good sign for our bet on the under is that the total has fallen from 24.5 to 23.5 signaling that more people agree, thus are betting the under and / or that the sportsbook has reason to believe the under will cash and may also be trying to protect themselves from liability.
Just like their football classmates the lacrosse edition of Army / Navy notoriously goes under as well. The last time this matchup saw 23 or more goals was 2004 which bodes well for a bet on Under 23.5 goals.
Army has gone over 23.5 goals a total of 6 times this season but also under 6 times. In those 6 Army contests with the total falling under 23.5, Army has gone under by an average of 2 goals. Army’s decent offense ranked 12th efficiency and 10th in goals per game (14.58) is concerning here. However, their defense ranked 13th in pace, allowing just 10.5 goals per game should be able to keep the weaker Navy offense out of the net.
Navy has gone over 23.5 goals just 3 times this season and stayed under 9 times. In those 9 unders Navy stayed under by an average 4.38 goals! Navy’s offense also does not show many signs of being high powered today coming in at 50th in efficiency and 51st in goals per game. Their defense also struggles at 48th in efficiency and 48th in pace.
This year’s Navy squad also ranks 51st in Efficiency by Possession, according to Lacrosse Reference. This means Navy on average takes longer to take their first shot of a possession than the 50 teams listed above them in this category. This should collate to an under ticket cashing.
Whether this is the very beginning or just a new chapter in your sports betting journey, I hope you are enjoying it so far!
I will continue to keep you up to date on the lacrosse world as well as point out helpful sports betting strategies.
When you’re trying to pick a bet you can never have too much information. No single fact should trigger a bet, rather a wide combination of factors should help make your decision.
Think of yourself as a prosecutor in a court case who must prove guilt beyond a doubt, using hard evidence. When you’re trying to pick a bet, the wager is your case, and you must prove your case for that side, to the jury in your brain (beyond a doubt).
Every scrap of information you can gather on a game is like the evidence a prosecutor requires. It takes more than one suggestive piece of information to get a conviction in court, just like it takes lots of information to win at sports betting.
Before placing money on a wager, be sure you’ve really examined and found good reasons (beyond a doubt) to make your choice.
As always, my DM’s are open with any questions you may have about lacrosse or sports betting @bCostigan84 on Twitter.
Best of luck and let’s cash some bets!